Skip to main content
Home
  • English
  • العربية
  • SUPPORT
  • Log in
  • JOIN EXINITY
  • Markets
    • Markets

    Explore global financial markets

    Individual stocks
    • Stocks
    • Stock CFDs
    Forex and commodities
    • Forex pairs
    • Commodities
    Indices
    • Indices
    • Currency indices
  • Ways to trade
    • Ways to trade

    Explore our services at a glance

    • Exinity World

    Get pure investing simplicity and build a global portfolio from just $20

    • Exinity Trader

    Been trading for a while?
    Say hello to Trader

    • Exinity Trader Pro

    Pro, meet pro.
    The service for experienced traders

  • Edge
    Edge

    The markets are full of opportunity, but you won’t find it by accident. Edge puts useful and jargon-free insight at your fingertips.

    Edge library
    • Understanding the markets
    • Analysis and forecasting
    • Understanding risk and returns
    • Learning from experience
    Trading ideas
    • What our experts say
    • Meet our experts
  • About

What our experts say

Week Ahead: EURUSD to reflect ECB vs. Fed ‘path to normal’

Han Tan
Chief Market Analyst
03.09 @ 16:57 GMT
Han Tan

Fresh from the shockingly-low August US nonfarm payrolls print, market participants would be eager to get the thoughts of Fed officials from their mid-week speeches about whether the US central bank can still press ahead with its tapering plans amidst an apparent hiring slowdown.

Throw in an ECB that may have been given cause to tilt hawkish, and the tapering debate could be revived in earnest across global financial markets.

Here are the other scheduled economic data releases and events that could move markets in the coming week:

Monday, September 6

  • EUR: Germany July factory orders
  • US markets closed
  • US President Joe Biden to renominate Jerome Powell as Fed Chair this week?

Tuesday, September 7

  • CNH: China August trade
  • AUD: Reserve Bank of Australia policy decision
  • EUR: Germany July industrial production and September ZEW survey expectations
  • EUR: Eurozone 2Q GDP (final print)

Wednesday, September 8

  • CAD: Bank of Canada rate decision
  • USD: US July JOLTS job openings
  • USD: Fed Beige book
  • USD: Fed Speak – Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, New York Fed President John Williams

Thursday, September 9

  • CNH: China August CPI and PPI
  • EUR: Germany July trade
  • EUR: European Central Bank rate decision
  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
  • EIA crude oil inventory report

Friday, September 10

  • EUR: Germany August CPI (final print)
  • GBP: UK July monthly GDP and trade
  • CAD: Canada August unemployment
  • USD: US August PPI

 

Recall that Fed Chair Jerome Powell, during his virtual Jackson Hole speech in late August, sought to divorce the idea of the Fed’s tapering as an immediate precursor to a rate hike. However, he did say he was open to throwing his weight behind easing up on the central bank’s support measures by year-end.

But such commentary was delivered before the stunning slowdown in US hiring last month.

At the same time, across the Atlantic Ocean, the European Central Bank may have been given cause to start contemplating the unwinding of its pandemic-era stimulus measures. Eurozone inflation hit 3% in August, a level not seen since 2011 and well above the central bank’s current target.

Should members of the ECB’s Governing Council start to sound more hawkish after their policy meeting in the coming week, that could spur more gains for EURUSD, especially at a time when the Fed’s tapering plans have grown more uncertain.

From a technical perspective, EURUSD appears to have been overbought, having breached its upper Bollinger band.

A hawkish-sounding ECB this week could be the catalyst for more sustained gains for the shared currency, allowing euro bulls to take advantage of the perceived wobble in the Fed’s tapering plans.

Such a scenario could place the world’s most-traded currency pair on a path towards the 1.1975 resistance line last seen in June.

Alternatively, should ECB President Christine Lagarde stick to her dovish guns in the coming week, that could prompt the euro to unwind some of its recent gains and move back closer to its 50-day simple moving average against the US dollar.

Disclaimer: This material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. It should not be construed as an investment recommendation or a solicitation for any transaction. It does not imply any obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. Exinity, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

Ready to jump into the markets?

Choose your Exinity experience and create your account in minutes

JOIN EXINITY
  •  
  •  
  •  
  •  
Home
  • About us
    • Exinity Group
    • Careers
    • Company news
    • Meet our experts
  • Useful links
    • Trading platforms
    • Trading tools
    • Trading hours
  • Support
    • FAQ
    • Contact us

The services on the Website are provided by Exinity Limited (exinity.com), regulated and licensed by the Financial Services Commission of the republic of Mauritius with an Investment Dealer License bearing license number C113012295.

Card transactions are processed via Exinity Services Limited (EU merchant company), a company incorporated in the Republic of Cyprus with company number ΗΕ 400404, registered office at 64 Agiou Georgiou Makri, Anna Maria Lena Court, Office 201, 6037, Larnaca, Cyprus and regulated by the laws of Cyprus. Address for cardholder correspondence: [email protected] Business location address: 35 Lamprou Konstantara, Kato Polemidia, 4156, Limassol, Cyprus.

Exinity ME Ltd is registered under the Laws of the Abu Dhabi Global Market (“ADGM”), with registered offices at 16-104, 16 Floor, Al Khatem Tower, ADGM Square, Al Maryah Island, Abu Dhabi, UAE. It is regulated by the Financial Services Regulatory Authority (“FSRA”), Financial Services Permission Number 200015 and is a duly licensed Category 3A Firm authorized to provide financial products and services to persons who meet the qualifying criteria of a Professional Client as defined by the FSRA rules.

Risk Warning: Trading Forex and Leveraged Financial Instruments involves significant risk and can result in the loss of your invested capital. You should not invest more than you can afford to lose and should ensure that you fully understand the risks involved. Trading leveraged products may not be suitable for all investors. Trading non-leveraged products such as stocks also involves risk as the value of a stock can fall as well as rise, which could mean getting back less than you originally put in. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Before trading, please take into consideration your level of experience, investment objectives and seek independent financial advice if necessary. It is the responsibility of the Client to ascertain whether he/she is permitted to use the services of the Exinity brand based on the legal requirements in his/her country of residence. Please read Exinity’s full Risk Disclosure.

Regional restrictions: The Exinity brand does not provide services to residents of the USA, Japan, New Zealand, Canada, Mauritius, Haiti, Hong Kong, Suriname, the Democratic Republic of Korea, Puerto Rico, the Occupied Area of Cyprus.

© 2021 Exinity

Terms and agreements   |   Privacy   |   Cookies