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What our experts say

Week Ahead: S&P 500 to get cues from US retail sales, earnings

Han Tan
Chief Market Analyst
12.11 @ 13:57 GMT
Han Tan

Even as markets still contemplate the implications of red-hot US inflation, such concerns are set to also colour the upcoming US retail sales data, along with earnings out of retail giants such as Walmart, Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target in the coming days.

Here are the scheduled economic data releases and corporate events that could move markets in the coming week:

Monday, November 15

  • JPY: Japan GDP
  • CNH: China October retail sales, industrial production
  • GBP: BOE MPC member Jonathan Haskel speech

Tuesday, November 16

  • AUD: RBA Governor Philip Lowe speech, RBA meeting minutes
  • EUR: Eurozone Q3 GDP
  • GBP: UK September unemployment, October jobless claims
  • USD: US October retail sales and industrial production
  • Walmart Q3 earnings
  • Home Depot Q3 earnings
  • USD: Fed speak – Richmond Fed President Thomas Barkin, Kansas Fed President Esther George, Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker

Wednesday, November 17

  • JPY: Japan October trade
  • EUR: Eurozone October CPI (final)
  • GBP: UK October CPI
  • Baidu Q3 earnings
  • USD: Fed speak - New York Fed President John Williams, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
  • US crude: EIA weekly US crude oil inventory report
  • NVIDIA Q3 earnings
  • Lowe’s Q3 earnings
  • Target Q3 earnings

Thursday, November 18

  • USD: US weekly initial jobless claims
  • JD.com Q3 earnings
  • Alibaba Q3 earnings

Friday, November 19

  • JPY: Japan October CPI
  • GBP: UK October retail sales, November consumer confidence
  • GBP: BOE Chief Economist Huw Pill speech
  • CAD: Canada September retail sales
  • USD: Fed speak – San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly, Fed Vice Chairman Richard Clarida

Note that Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target are all constituents of the S&P 500 (Walmart was dropped from the blue-chip index back in 2020). These stocks are all considered “consumer discretionary” stocks, and this grouping carries an 12.85% weightage on the overall S&P 500.

Granted, the combined market cap of Home Depot, Lowe’s, and Target stand at less than US$ 700 billion (before US markets open on Friday, 12 November), which pales in comparison to the S&P 500’s total market cap of over $41 trillion. However, their respective earnings could speak to the resilience of the US consumer.

On the economic calendar, fundamental investors are also set to gleam further clues about the health of the world’s largest economy via the US October retail sales data due Tuesday. At the time of writing, the market is forecasting a print of 1.1%, which would be its highest since March.

Should US consumers demonstrate enough spending power that can punch through the inflationary woes, that could help spur the S&P 500 on to greater heights.

S&P 500 futures are attempting to reclaim its record high, even as inflation concerns continue to swirl about. The concern is that stubbornly elevated consumer prices could force the Fed’s hand into raising US interest rates earlier than expected, and at a faster pace; such an outlook could dampen demand for equities, especially for growth stocks on the S&P 500.

And with momentum indicators appearing to dip, this blue-chip index could use a helping hand from robust economic data and earnings.

Better-than-expected retail sales data and earnings from these retail stalwarts could offer enough justification for equity bulls to push the S&P 500 onto a new record high.

Disclaimer: This material is comprised of personal opinions and ideas. It should not be construed as an investment recommendation or a solicitation for any transaction. It does not imply any obligation to purchase investment services, nor does it guarantee or predict future performance. Exinity, its affiliates, agents, directors, officers or employees do not guarantee the accuracy, validity, timeliness or completeness of any information or data made available and assume no liability for any loss arising from any investment based on the same.

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